BYU · No. 13 · Week 7 analysis

Where the team stands

BYU ranks No. 13 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +12.82 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 15; this update moves it +2 places and +0.38 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 6 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 6–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +7.493. Prior-season margin: +19.821.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0492; EPA/play net: +0.1447; success-rate net: +0.0596; explosiveness net: +0.0780. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 4 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

BYU beat Notre Dame by 4 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -8.10; the result was +12.10 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is UCF on 2026-10-24. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 360 versus 376; Net passing yards: 239 versus 261; Rushing yards: 121 versus 115; First downs: 23 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 24-37 versus 27-49; Rush attempts: 30 versus 30; Yards per pass: 6.5 versus 5.3; Yards per rush: 4.0 versus 3.8

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 24 points and recorded 376 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 0 versus 0; Tackles for loss: 3 versus 2; Third downs: 8-12 versus 8-19; Fourth downs: 0-1 versus 4-4

Turnovers: 2 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 1 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 4-35 versus 4-40; Possession time: 29:02 versus 30:58

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 6–0. The expected final record is 10.1–1.9 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 12 Ole Miss (+13.56); No. 14 James Madison (+11.68).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.