Ball State · Week 3 analysis

Where the team stands

Ball State ranks No. 131 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of -12.95 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 133; this update moves it +2 places and +0.63 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 3 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 1–2. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: -3.240. Prior-season margin: -10.212.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: -0.0095; EPA/play net: +0.0457; success-rate net: +0.0015; explosiveness net: +0.1159. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 1 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Ball State lost to Liberty by 36 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of -12.17; the result was -23.83 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Kent State on 2026-09-26. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 261 versus 460; Net passing yards: 93 versus 248; Rushing yards: 168 versus 212; First downs: 17 versus 23

Completions–attempts: 10-21 versus 16-24; Rush attempts: 35 versus 40; Yards per pass: 4.4 versus 10.3; Yards per rush: 4.8 versus 5.3

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 51 points and recorded 460 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 3; Tackles for loss: 3 versus 6; Third downs: 1-9 versus 10-13; Fourth downs: 1-1 versus 1-1

Turnovers: 1 versus 1; Fumbles lost: 1 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 0; Penalties–yards: 11-107 versus 3-25; Possession time: 28:01 versus 31:59

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 1–2. The expected final record is 4.6–7.4 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 130 Charlotte (-12.77); No. 132 Massachusetts (-12.99).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.