Alabama · Week 4 analysis

Where the team stands

Alabama ranks No. 10 in the reconstructed EP field, with a rating of +15.95 points against the average FBS opponent.

The previous snapshot ranked it No. 8; this update moves it -2 places and +0.60 rating points.

The rating snapshot includes 4 eligible games, with an eligible-results record of 4–0. The 24-hour kickoff embargo is applied consistently in historical forecast snapshots.

What enters this model

Opponent-adjusted current margin: +6.501. Prior-season margin: +20.014.

Opponent-adjusted first-down rate: +0.0610; EPA/play net: +0.2836; success-rate net: +0.0868; explosiveness net: +0.3039. These are adjusted net signals, not raw offensive rates.

EP inputs cover 3 eligible games. Excluded games contribute no fabricated EP observation. Opponent results can move a rating even during a bye.

The result and the reconstructed expectation

Alabama beat South Carolina by 31 points. The pre-result reconstruction projected a margin of +15.08; the result was +15.92 points relative to that expectation.

This is a newly reconstructed forecast under the frozen EP model. It is not represented as a prediction published before the game, and it does not replace the original published grade.

Next scheduled test

The next scheduled opponent at this snapshot is Mississippi State on 2026-10-03. That fixture is schedule information; its later outcome is not used in this report.

Offense: production and workload

Total yards: 489 versus 419; Net passing yards: 365 versus 203; Rushing yards: 124 versus 216; First downs: 20 versus 22

Completions–attempts: 21-27 versus 20-33; Rush attempts: 30 versus 40; Yards per pass: 13.5 versus 6.2; Yards per rush: 4.1 versus 5.4

Read production alongside workload: more attempts can raise a yardage total without raising efficiency. The model uses opponent-adjusted rate signals, not this box score alone.

Defense and possession

The opponent scored 18 points and recorded 419 total yards. This describes the conceded production; it does not identify a particular player or coverage as its cause.

Recorded sacks: 1 versus 2; Tackles for loss: 4 versus 5; Third downs: 5-10 versus 3-14; Fourth downs: 0-0 versus 3-5

Turnovers: 0 versus 2; Fumbles lost: 0 versus 1; Interceptions thrown: 0 versus 1; Penalties–yards: 4-36 versus 7-65; Possession time: 30:20 versus 29:40

The season outlook at this snapshot

The recorded regular-season record is 4–0. The expected final record is 9.7–2.3 over 12 scheduled games.

Expected wins add recorded results to the estimated win probabilities of remaining games. They are not a list of certain winners. Probabilities use a symmetric approximation from historical development residuals; independent calibration has not been established.

The comparison around the ranking

Nearby in this same snapshot: No. 9 Utah (+16.24); No. 11 James Madison (+14.31).

PSR compares predictive strength rather than sorting teams by wins. A team can win and move down, or lose and move up, as its performance and opponents change the adjusted evidence.

How to read this assessment

This is a fresh assessment under the frozen EP model, using this period's eligible inputs. Earlier published releases remain preserved separately; the reconstructed archive is not presented as a prediction published before those games.

Scoring margin, prior-season margin, first-down efficiency, EPA per play, success rate and explosiveness contribute together. Correlated signals should not be interpreted as independent proof of an advantage, and a model disagreement with a betting line is not proof of profit.